Quarterly Market Commentary

“History teaches everything, including the future.” – Alphonse de Lamartine

At Talaria we are keen students of history, and in our December Quarterly Commentary, we guide readers through the lessons learned from 70 years of U.S. rate hike cycles. By assessing the data and patterns that emerge, we assess the likelihood of a soft-landing versus an earnings and GDP recession.

Specifically, we analyse:

• The scale of past peak-to-trough moves in EPS and the S&P 500 at the end of each cycle
• How to position equities by examining various factor returns in the 18 months following rate peaks
• Current valuations across asset classes to contextualise the market environment

While the commentary does not make a forecast, it does point to a more uncertain future than the plain sailing that many equities are currently pricing in.