The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different’; and we have been hearing this a lot recently, says Hugh Selby-Smith, Talaria co-CIO.
“The boom in Artificial Intelligence (AI), a rise in big government spending programs, and high employment levels, seem to have enticed investors into this optimistic point of view.
“Scratch under the surface, however, and a different picture emerges. The market is currently offering few opportunities for investors to make decent returns.”
Hugh says this is particularly evident in the all-important US, where corporate earnings’ forecasts overall are stagnant or getting worse, the employment outlook is weakening, and valuations are rising from already extended levels.
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With Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) negative in the first quarter and historical trends suggesting a similar downturn for GDP and company earnings, Coincident Indicators (CEI) are likely to fall. Employment figures are also starting to show signs of instability.